Sardar : Will There Be A Rogue Nuclear Attack On India?

India Pakistan Nuclear Arsenals

India Pakistan Nuclear Arsenals

 

 

Introduction

The Indian sub-continent constitutes the most dangerous nuclear hotspot in the world. In 1999, India and Pakistan came within a hairs breadth of a nuclear war. A holocaust averted due to the adroit leadership of President Clinton. The Doomsday clock for mutually assured destruction (MAD) is stuck at five minutes to midnight.  But due to the recent dramatic changes in Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, the clock should be advanced to three minutes to midnight.

India has made a sharp turn towards becoming a RSS thug state. Internally there is widespread repression of Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, aboriginal tribals and other minorities. Violence against minorities has become a daily occurrence. There are on-going insurgencies in Kashmir (a state with a 95%+ Muslim population, Mizoram, Nagaland (a Christian majority state), Tripura (a tribal majority state) and the Sikh Punjab. Then there is the absurdly named state of Arunachal Pradesh, a state with Mongolian inhabitants. ‘Aranuchal Pradesh’ is historically part of Tibet.

In a series of articles on the demonetization debacle in India, Canadian financial analyst Jayant Bhandari has predicted that India will collapse into a number of statelets in the near future. This analysis is based on the rapidly worsening condition of the one billion destitute ‘Indians’ who live on less than three dollars a day, a fascist Hindutva ideology and embedded corruption on a gigantic scale. However also looming on India’s horizon is a rogue nuclear attack.

 

The Coldstart Doctrine And The Mechanics Of A Rogue Nuclear Attack

As part of it’s foreign policy, India has been promoting an insurgency in the Balochistan province of Pakistan, trying to direct Afghanistan’s internal affairs and interfering with China through Mongolia. But it is the Indian Coldstart military doctrine which has caused a dramatic uptick in nuclear hostilities between India and Pakistan.

The Coldstart doctrine provides for India to maintain battle preparedness all along the Western Pakistan-India border of 1500 miles. And in the event of a war, mobilize within forty eight hours and achieve shallow penetration all along the border and then stop. Shallow penetration means a penetration of twenty miles. This  rapid penetration will not give the International community and the U.N. Security Council enough time to respond. When the Security Council responds and a ceasefire is put into effect, India will readily comply to show it’s ‘good nature’; but in reality it would have  already achieved it’s military objectives. The land that India seizes will not be returned and the inhabitants in these conquered lands will be expatriated to a disgraced and humbled Pakistan. Pakistan will collapse into further anarchy as an enraged population reacts to the debacle.

Pakistan’s response to the Coldstart doctrine is to give battlefield commanders the right to use tactical nuclear weapons without seeking permission from the command chain upstream. And herein lies the problem. Battle-preparedness requires Pakistan to provide field commanders with access to tactical nuclear weapons even though hostilities have not yet commenced.

A rogue Pakistani field commander could supply Afghan insurgents with a tactical nuclear weapon (or more than one) to bring the Hindutva State of India to calamity. India’s border with Pakistan can be easily penetrated. Especially since the Muslim and Sikh populations on the border are very hostile to India.  Parenthetically, recently India forcedly evacuated over a hundred Sikh villages straddling the Punjab Pakistan border.

 

Probability Of A Rogue Nuclear Attack

In my opinion there is at least an even chance that Afghan insurgents will launch a rogue nuclear attack on Hindutva India. Here is a laundry list of the reasons:

  1.   Social and political animosity between India and Pakistan is tantamount to visceral hatred
  2.   With at least 180 million Muslims in India, India is the most populous Muslim country in the world
  3.   India has devolved into a fascist state where minorities are being stripped off their rights
  4.  Kashmir State would instantly separate from India if a plebiscite were held
  5.  Sikh Punjab would instantly separate from India if a plebiscite were held
  6.  The creation of the Caliphate from the Atlantic Ocean (Morocco) to the Pacific Ocean (Indonesia) characterizes
    Kashmir as an important link in the chain
  7. Hindutva India is interfering with the Sikh, Muslim and Christian religions

 

It must be realized that the liberation of Kashmir is a paramount objective of Islamists. They also realize that asymmetrical warfare against India will be a bloody and drawn-out affair. And therefore decapitation of India by a rogue nuclear attack is the path of least resistance.

I would also hazard to guess that if the Pakistan military comes to the conclusion that an all out nuclear war between India and Pakistan is inevitable then it may arm Afghan insurgents to carry out a rogue nuclear attack on India with a small tactical nuclear bomb (in order to avoid a full-scale nuclear war with India).

As a further note, U.S. Army war-gaming simulations of a war between India and Pakistan have always ended with a nuclear exchange.

Aftermath Of A Rogue Nuclear Attack

A rogue nuclear attack on India will galvanize the Security Council to de-nuclearize India and Pakistan. Almost assuredly, the Kashmir impasse will be put to an internationally supervised plebiscite. India will be forced to abide by the results of the plebiscite. Kashmir will become a independent nation; this is unquestionable.

If Sikhs are smart and united and have established well rooted international organizations that articulate their concerns in the International arena, they will be able to create Khalistan at the same time. This is an important task for Sikhs.

 

Khalistan As A Buffer State

As the above analysis shows, India’s Coldstart Doctrine may have dramatic unintended consequences.  The analysis also indicates that it is in the best interests of the international community to have Khalistan created as a buffer state to physically separate India and Pakistan.

 

 

 

 

 

In the video clip below, the National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, promotes nuclear war, stating that if there is going to be a nuclear war, so be it. He then goes on to aggressively state that India will utterly destroy Pakistan:

 

 

Afterword

The Coldstart doctrine as well as the fanatical Hindu animosity towards Pakistan lends credence to the hypothesis that India will be felled by a rogue nuclear attack. This is the path of least resistance.

 

 

 

 

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