World War III Scenarios



Escalation Scenarios: The Third World War and Its Aftermath

from:  http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2009/12/12/pakistan-is-fully-prepared-for-world-war-iii/

 

 

 

Very soon there is going to be a Great War that will destroy three out of four parts; three-fourths is going to be destroyed and out of seven people, six are going to be destroyed.

Nuclear power plants are nuclear war targets which will spread massive additional radiation over thousands of square miles.

A world nuclear war is one that involves most or all nuclear powers releasing a large proportion of their nuclear weapons at targets in nuclear, and perhaps non-nuclear, states. Such a war could be initiated accidentally, aggressively or pre-emptively and could continue and spread through these means or by retaliation by a party attacked by nuclear weapons. While some speak of “limited nuclear war,” it is likely that any nuclear war will quickly escalate and spiral out of control because of the “use them or loose them” strategy. If you don’t use all your nuclear weapons you are likely to have them destroyed by the enemy’s nuclear weapons.

Such a war could start through a reaction to terrorist attacks, or through the need to protect against overwhelming military opposition, or through the use of small battle field tactical nuclear weapons meant to destroy hardened targets. It might quickly move on to the use of strategic nuclear weapons delivered by short-range or inter-continental missile or long-range bomber. These could deliver high altitude bursts whose electromagnetic pulse knocks out electrical circuits for hundreds of square miles. Or they could deliver nuclear bombs to destroys nuclear and/or non-nuclear military facilities, nuclear power plants, important industrial sites and cities. Or it could skip all those steps and start through the accidental or reckless use of strategic weapons.

Below are seven scenarios by which world nuclear war could come about. While these are some of the major scenarios and combination of attacks and retaliations, they are hardly exhaustive. U.S., Russian and other nuclear nations’ weapons strategizers deal with these scenarios every day but rarely let mere citizens in on their grizzly thinking. Citizens must end their denial and become aware of such scenarios.ar With Russia.

 

THE GENERAL SCENARIOS

Accidental: Since the United States and Russia have “launch on warning” systems that send off rockets before it is confirmed a nuclear attack is underway, any tensions between them can lead to massive nuclear war within thirty minutes of a warning — no matter how false the warning may be.

Aggressive: One or more nations decides to use weapons against nuclear or non-nuclear nations in order to promote an economic, political or military goal, as part of an ongoing war or as a first strike nuclear attack. (The state , of course, may claim it is a pre-emptive, retaliatory or even accidental attack.)

Pre-emptive: One or more nations believes (correctly or incorrectly) or claims to believe that another nuclear nation is about to use nuclear weapons against its nuclear, military, industrial or civilian targets and pre-emptively attacks that nation. May result from political or military “brinkmanship.”

Retaliatory: Use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack — or even a conventional, chemical or biological attack by a non-nuclear nation.

 

ASSUMPTIONS OF THESE SCENARIOS

There is a whole body of knowledge and assumptions that is taken into account when putting together scenarios like the below. My bottom line assumption is that any nuclear exchange has an excellent chance of resulting in a series of escalations that will spiral out of control, setting off a round of exchanges among various enemies under a “use it or lose it” philosophy, as well as among the treaty allies of the relevant nuclear powers and their allies. This continues until most of the planets’ 20,000 odd nuclear weapons are exhausted. In making “limited nuclear war” calculations all nations should assume “whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.” Unfortunately, too many strategizers assume they can conduct limited strikes and keep them limited.

Related assumptions include:

** Any nuclear attack on a primary Russian target like Moscow, St. Petersburg, or nuclear command headquarters, by any nation or group, known or unknown, could lead to a commander turning on “The Dead Hand” strategy and/or prompt one or more of Russia’s semi-autonomous military field commanders to retaliate against U.S. and European nuclear targets. Attacks on secondary targets or nuclear detonations very close to Russian soil also might lead to some sort of nuclear escalation.

** Any nuclear attack on US and/or European sites by any nation or group, known or unknown, probably will result in massive US and/or European retaliation against the known or assumed perpetrators or their known or assumed allies.

** It is likely that the U.S., Russia, China, Israel, India and Pakistan will use some of their weapons to attack other nuclear and non-nuclear nations which might threaten them after they have been devastated by nuclear war.

** Any nuclear attack on Israel by terrorists, or Pakistan, Russia or China will result in Israel’s surviving land, air and submarine carried or based missiles being used against Arab and Muslim capitals. A particularly devastating attack (including with chemical or biological weapons) might result in possibly in a full scale “Samson Option” attack on European and Russian targets. The latter of course would result in Russian retaliation against the United States, perhaps its punishment for not having done enough to protect Israel.

** Any nation’s use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear nation will be only somewhat less inflammatory than using them against a nuclear nation, especially if that nation has many treaty allies. It will ratchet all nuclear nations alert systems and lead to unforeseeable consequences that could easily spiral to world nuclear war.

World War III – The First Scenario

SCENARIO I

ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES AND/OR SYRIA AND LEBANON WHICH RETALIATE WITH MASSIVE CONVENTIONAL OR WMD ROCKET ATTACKS, ISRAEL RETALIATES WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ESCALATING TO WORLD NUCLEAR WAR

Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities and/or Syria and Lebanon. These countries respond with massive rocket attacks using conventional bombs and even some chemical, biological or radiological weapons. Israel responds with nuclear strikes against these nations and Pakistan. Outraged Pakistan retaliates against Israel and pre-emptively attacks Israel’s ally/Pakistan’s enemy India, which retaliates. Israel initiates “Samson option” and attacks Arab and Muslim capitols, as well as “antisemitic” Europe and Russia. Russian regional commanders retaliate against Israel, its ally the U.S., and U.S. European allies and China, to destroy its nuclear capability. The U.S. retaliates against Russia and hits China’s nuclear capability. China uses any remaining nuclear weapons against Russia, the U.S. and India. India retaliates against China.

The Samson Option (From Wikipedia)
For the 1991 book by Seymour Hersh, see The Samson Option (book).

The Samson Option is a term used to describe Israel’s alleged deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a “last resort” against nations whose military attacks threaten its existence, and possibly against other targets as well.[1] Israel refuses to admit it has nuclear weapons or to describe how it would use them, an official policy of nuclear ambiguity, also known as “nuclear opacity.” This has made it difficult for anyone outside the Israeli government to definitively describe its true nuclear policy, while still allowing Israel to influence the perceptions, strategies and actions of other governments.[2]

As early as 1976, the CIA believed that Israel possessed 10 to 20 nuclear weapons.[3] By 2002 it was estimated that the number had increased to between 75 and 200 nuclear weapons.[4] Kenneth S. Brower has estimated as many as 400 nuclear weapons.[5] These can be launched from land, sea and air.[6] This gives Israel a second strike option even if much of the country is destroyed.[7]

The term “Samson Option” has also been used more generally in reference to Israel’s nuclear program.[8] Commentators have also used the term in reference to situations where non-nuclear actors, such as Saddam Hussein[9], Yassir Arafat[10] and Hezbollah[11] threatened conventional weapons retaliation, and even to United States President George W. Bush’s foreign policy.[12]

World War III – The Second Scenario

SCENARIO 2.

INDIA-PAKISTAN NUCLEAR EXCHANGE ESCALATES TO WORLD NUCLEAR WAR

Hindu and Muslim rioting or conflicts in Kashmir escalate into preemptive nuclear exchanges between India and Pakistan. A rogue Indian general strikes China which massively retaliates. Russian communications knocked out by electromagnetic pulses hit Europe and China with limited number of missiles. U.S. retaliates against Russia and attacks China to destroy its nuclear stocks. Russia retaliates against the U.S. and hits U.S. ally Israel. Israel initiates revenge attacks against Arab and Muslim capitols.

India and Pakistan in 2002

India and Pakistan have repeatedly threatened nuclear war against each other, most seriously in the last few years. In late December 2002 Pakistan’s president, General Pervez Musharraf, addressing Air Force veterans in Karachi, said: The last year “personally” conveyed a clear “message” to Prime Minister Vajpayee, “through every international leader who came to Pakistan”, namely, that Indian troops “should not expect a conventional war from Pakistan” if they “moved a single step across the international border or the Line of Control”. In response Indian Defense Minister George Fernandez said: “We can take a bomb or two, or more. When we respond, there will be no Pakistan.” About the same time former Army Chief of Staff Aslam Beg, then heading a right-wing Pakistani think tank said: “Our policy of deterrence is India-specific. No matter who comes for us, Israel, the United States or India we will take on India. If someone is thinking of taking on Pakistan they should know we will take on India.” And despite subsequent detente between the two nations during the remainder of 2003, as late as fall, 2003 Ariel Sharon visited India, worrying Pakistan that he was once again proposing India do a surgical strike against Pakistani nuclear assets. Once any such a Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange began, there are a number of scenarios by which it could escalate into accidental or intentional world nuclear war.

World War III – The Third Scenario

SCENARIO 3.

UNKNOWN PARTIES USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON ISRAEL, RUSSIA OR THE U.S. STARTING ESCALATION TO WORLD NUCLEAR WAR

Terrorists or some unknown nation explodes one or two nuclear weapons in Russia, Israel, or U.S., possibly delivered via surreptitious means. Russia and the U.S. blame each other escalating to mutual “retaliatory” attacks, including on Europe. If Russia attacks Israel, Israel immediately initiates revenge attacks against Arab and Muslim capitols, and possibly “anti-semitic” Europe and Russia. Russia and U.S. preemptively attack China, and India and Pakistan pre-emptively attack each other, to destroy nuclear and military capabilities.

tag: merlin’s crystal ball

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  1. Man has gone crazy but now refuses to understand the purpose of life, it seems such a shame that as the intelligence of man progress,s and women, we become more mad on mass war and murder. I see we have learned nothing about world war 2. This is humans downfall, only when some thing goes wrong do we act, we nothing to the lead up of the event as we have become to weak, to accept what is laying in froint of us. We have taken the communication system we use to to contact each other it talking the language and used it to manipulate life its self, and projected to the world a false face of living, this is excactly the world we live in today, the economic war has brought on the the future of mans destruction, and the human race,s greed has brought you to destruction, we have a chance to save the only planet to live on, so the question is what will you do about it. The time for talk is over, politics has failed, politicians have proven world wide there is evil in the world and corruption on the scale of oceans world wide. Intelligence has gone beyond being good humans, you have chosen violence and murder over having a good heart, you have a choice. Porpaganda is destroying the world, i also believe the armies of the world, have weapons of which we have never seen, some thing is going on in the high powers. We all laugh that oh no no they don,t have weapons like that and saying things of such ie your crazy for saying that. Yet in the early 1930,s of nazi,s they were drawing up plans for the jet plane, the nuclear bomb, heavy water power plants, blue prints for helicopters, the blackbird was an invention of the Nazi,z the americans took it for them selves, as they did with rocket technology and space ship rockets was desinged by teh captured scientists brawn if i have got the spelling right i don,t think i have sorry. But it is people of todays modern society that have failed to realise what human beings actually do from day to day, and its not white teeth and living healthy and all that politicians nonsense. There is a serioius problem in the world, and still you refuse to see it. But as time goes on you will see, what i already know of humans, that is a flaw in our creation. That is knowing what is right and wrong, we have become perverts of life, and perverted everything we know that we should not do, yet our brains fail us on carrying out the right move. Instead in the last 2 – 30 years we have made everything worse, technology will be our undoing. As we have seen banks are lieing ie total, goverments abusing policy globally, dictators going mass crazy, nuclear bombs on the rise, armies on the move, cruel men walking all over the place, even sexuality is a mess now, nostradamous said in the year 2013 the Earth will be in Anarchy, it would see day by day he is right. We cut corners, treat life with no respect any more, morals are non existent, leaders do nothing but lie they are people who seem to think they are gods of some saught, when in fact they are nothing of the saught at all, they are just plain skeletons like you and me with a chip on there shoulder. If we are not careful we destroy life and creatures totally, the creations of life is a beautiful thing. yet you laugh at this and starve people and have armies wipe them out, there is no control over you actions you all have this gift to stop this madness and not support people who live only to destroy life. One day there will an event that wil make you stop and look around you, but at that stage it will to late.

    NUCLEAR WEPONS ARE WRONG, PROBLEM IS THERE IS NOT ONE GOOD MAN ANYWHERE OF WHOM WE CAN TRUST TO SAY WE ACTUALLY DESTROYED THEM ALL, THAT IS ONE THING THAT ESCAPES US AS A LIFE FORCE, THAT IS THE PART OF BEING HUMAN BEINGS WE HAVE LOST AND WE ARE TO WEAK TO DO IT.

    The madness of the human being is here i believe, we have lost our minds once again as we did in world war II, yet won,t see what is coming if we don,t change our ways.

    LIKE WE ALWAYS SAY, AND RIGHT NOW AS I SAY THIS, I KNOW YOU WILL AGREE WITH ME. THE HUMAN BRAIN IS A DANGEROUS WEAPON AS ALL AND EVERYTHING WE BUILD COMES FROM THE BRAIN.

    THE WORLD IS ON KNIFES EDGE RIGHT NOW, EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK MORE AND MORE WARS ARE POPPING UP ALL OVER THE NEWS AND THE PLANET. ONCE AGAIN MADNESS HAS RETURNED TO KILL HUMAN BEINGS, IF THEIS CONTINUES YOU WILL RUIN THE EARTH AND ITS BEAUTY BECAUSE OF LIKE THE CURRENT PROBLEM, OF WHICH WE CALL GREED ONE OF THE SEVEN DEADLY SINS, EVEN NOW YOU WILL SAY IM CRAZY, AM I LOOK AROUND YOU AND THE EARTH, NEARLY EVEYTHING ON THE NEWS IS ABOUT DEAF AND LIES AND CORRUPTION THESE DAYS, WAKE UP PEOPLE.

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